![]() November 2011 – The draft 2012 business plan has a massive increase in the cost estimate for Phase 1, now projected to cost between $65.4 billion and $74.5 billion. ![]() The revised business plan assumes $9 billion in Prop 1A bonds, $17-19 billion in federal funds, $4-5 billion in local funding, and $10-12 billion in public-private partnerships. $9 billion in bonds was 27 percent of $33.6 billion, but as the 2008 dollars inflate over time, a fixed $9 billion in bonds would inevitably shrink as a percentage of total cost.ĭecember 2009 – CHSRA updates the $33.6 billion cost estimate (which was in 2008 dollars) to $34.9 billion (also in 2008 dollars), and then converts that to $42.6 billion in year-of-expenditure (YOE) dollars. However, this presentation had an inherent flaw – while the costs were presented in constant 2008 dollars that would inflate with time, the state’s $9 billion bond contribution was a fixed amount that would not inflate with time. Voters then approved Prop 1A, 52.6% to 47.4%. The plan promises voters that $9 billion in Proposition 1A bonds would be coupled with $2-3 billion in local funding, $12-16 billion in federal funding, and $6.7-$7.5 billion in public-private partnership funding, which would be enough to build a complete San Francisco to Anaheim system costing $33.6 billion in 2008 dollars. November 2008 – A new business plan focuses just on the 520-mile San Francisco to Anaheim segment, now called Phase 1, with the Sacramento and San Diego extensions (Phase 2) postponed indefinitely. (We can’t find this on the CHSRA website but the nonpartisan California Legislative Analyst’s Office quoted this 2006 estimate in the 2008 Prop 1A voter guide.) ![]() Sometime in 2006 – CHSRA increases the cost estimate for the entire system, including the Sacramento and San Diego extensions, to $45 billion. November 1999– A funding plan commissioned by CHSRA and later incorporated into its 2000 business plan estimates the cost of a 670-mile HSR system (San Francisco through Los Angeles to Irvine, including extensions to Sacramento and San Diego) to be $25 billion in 1999 dollars.Īugust 2005 – An initial environmental impact report prepared by CHSRA in cooperation with the Federal Railroad Administration finds that the cost of the 670-mile plan described in 1999 would “range between $33 billion and $37 billion (2003 dollars), depending on the alignment and station options selected.” ![]()
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